AKTIVLARNI BOSHQARISHDA MOLIYAVIY MODELLASHTIRISH: UZOQ MUDDATLI KAPITAL REJALASH (LONG-TERM CAPITAL PLANNING) METODOLOGIYASI

Farrux Suleymanov

Авторы

Farrux Suleymanov Автор

Ключевые слова:

aktivlar menejmenti, moliyaviy modellashtirish, Long-Term Capital Planning, LTCP, NPV, IRR, DCF tahlili, moliyalashtirish bo'shlig'i, infratuzilma investitsiyalari, kapital xarajatlar, CAPEX, OPEX.

Аннотация

Ushbu maqolada infratuzilma aktivlarini boshqarishda Uzoq muddatli kapital rejalash (Long-Term Capital Planning - LTCP) metodologiyasi va moliyaviy modellashtirish vositalarini qo'llashning nazariy-amaliy asoslari o'rganilgan. O'zbekistonda barqaror iqtisodiy o'sishni ta'minlash uchun infratuzilmaga yillik investitsiya ehtiyoji YaIMning 5–7% ni tashkil etishi qayd etilib, mavjud moliyalashtirish hajmi (2–3%) va haqiqiy ehtiyoj o'rtasidagi tafovut — Infratuzilma Moliyalashtirish Bo'shlig'i (Infrastructure Financing Gap - IFG) miqdori hisoblab chiqilgan. Tadqiqot doirasida 10–30 yillik investitsiya tsikllarini rejalashtirishda Sof Joriydagi Qiymat (NPV), Ichki Daromadlik Meyori (IRR) va Diskontlangan Pul Oqimlari (DCF) usullaridan foydalanish mexanizmlari moslashtirildi. Milliy infratuzilma tarmoqlari (suv ta'minoti, yo'llar, energetika) uchun 30 yillik LTCP stsenariysi modellashtirildi hamda aktivlar taqchilligi va moliyalashtirish bo'shliqlarini aniqlashning yaxlit metodikasi ishlab chiqildi. Taklif etilayotgan yondashuv davlat byudjet mablag'larini taqsimlash samaradorligini 30–40% ga oshirish imkonini beradi.

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